Snapshot on Risk Analysis

Snapshot on: Risk analysis and monitoring

This 2-pager falls under the Emergency Preparedness and Response Planning folder of the EAPRO NiE toolkit

Key resources:

IASC ERP guidance from 2015

UNICEF Child-centered risk assessment methodology

DRR and risk-informed programming in 10 min (UNICEF EAPRO link here)

UNICEF EAPR Nutrition readiness matrix

Key messages from the IASC ERP guidance

• The IASC defines risk monitoring and analysis as the first pillar of emergency preparedness planning.

• A clear and common understanding of the risks which may trigger a crisis significant enough to require a coordinated response is fundamental to the entire EPRP process.

• Analysis informs the planning while monitoring ensures that the process is responsive to emerging risks.

• The risk analysis process identifies the hazards that could trigger a crisis and ranks them by impact and likelihood.

• Risk monitoring should be undertaken using indicators identified as part of the risk analysis process and pre-set thresholds for these indicators.

• Monitoring provides early warning of emerging risks which in turn allows for early action[1], such as tailoring the contingency plan and where possible taking action that could mitigate the impact of the emerging risk.

Mapping of nutrition indicators layered with hazard risk aims to identify areas of greatest vulnerability for nutrition and promotes risk-informed nutrition programs. Some countries in the region have completed the child-centered risk assessment[2], which incorporates multi-sector indicators (child vulnerability with hazard risk, capacity and hazard exposure)[3]. Nutrition vulnerability maps/tables can be developed (sometimes called a sectoral map) to inform where is the greatest risk and where programs and efforts should be concentrated. This mapping serves as a useful preparedness tool, for quick reference when there is a disaster to assess underlying vulnerabilities and potentially prioritize the initial response when the affected area is large.

The Regional NiE strategy package (NiE toolkit folder 0.2, link here) proposes a tool that looks at multi-hazard risks and nutrition vulnerabilities as a function of NiE competencies, analysis used to propose a risk classification for each country (low risk low impact; medium level of risk moderate to important impact; critically high risk major impact). Then, for each country the level of Nutrition readiness is assessed against this level of risk / impact and can serve the definition of priority actions to increase Nutrition readiness accordingly (See Figure 1).

To note that the above analysis was inspired from the UNICEF LACRO NiE colleagues approach and tool developed to allow a standardized definition, across countries, of minimum NiE preparedness and response capacity to be used as a baseline, allowing for the prioritization of countries for support and the monitoring of progress over time.

This risk-informed approach to programming is totally in line with UNICEF strategic planning and the UNICEF HQ Program Division jointly with EMOPS developed guidance on risk-informed programming that was recently piloted in Ethiopia. This guidance and its 5-module package will be available soon and complements other / existing tools e.g., UNICEF child-centered risk assessments3.

Figure 1: Countries are represented as colored circles, located in three different risk areas. The bigger the circle is the more Nutrition ready the country is. The smaller the circle is the less Nutrition ready the country is. Extracted from the EAPRO Regional NiE strategy

[1] See also the Early Warning tab of the UNICEF EWEA platform as well as EWEA considerations under the NiE toolkit folder Preparedness/Contingency planning/MPAs here

[3] CHILD-CENTRED RISK ASSESSMENT report – Regional Synthesis of UNICEF Assessments in Asia. “In 2011, UNICEF Nepal’s Emergency Unit developed the first child-centered risk assessment… that helps better understand and operationalize risk. It is an essential tool for risk-informed planning and ultimately risk-informed programming. .. the findings can be utilized in relation to government counterparts, partner organizations and community members, or internally in UNICEF.” Web link here.